As winter approaches, Hong Kong faces a critical public health challenge with an anticipated surge in influenza cases, prompting urgent calls from medical experts for proactive vaccination, especially among children. Respiratory expert David Hui Shu-cheong from the Chinese University of Hong Kong has raised significant concerns about the current vaccination landscape and potential health risks.

The statistics paint a worrying picture: only 14 percent of children aged six months to 2 years—a high-risk demographic—have received the flu vaccine. This low coverage leaves a substantial portion of young children vulnerable to potentially severe respiratory infections. The summer season has already witnessed at least 18 severe pediatric influenza cases, tragically resulting in two fatalities among children aged 11 months to 17 years.

Hong Kong’s flu season follows a predictable pattern, with the summer wave peaking in mid-October and expected to decline by late November or early December. However, cooler weather might slow this typical six to eight-week reduction. Experts anticipate the winter flu season will emerge between January and March, making immediate vaccination crucial.

While vaccination efforts are underway, with 1.33 million doses administered since September—a 3.9 percent increase from the previous year—approximately 80 percent of the population remains unvaccinated. Hui emphasizes that developing protective antibodies takes about two weeks after vaccination, underscoring the importance of timely immunization.

The health landscape becomes even more complex with the emergence of a new Covid-19 variant, XFG, which has been detected in multiple countries, including Hong Kong. Currently accounting for 3.8 percent of local cases, this highly transmissible strain hasn’t demonstrated increased severity. Nevertheless, experts warn of a potential infection wave between January and March, coinciding with the expected flu peak.

An additional layer of complexity involves diagnostic testing. Rapid antigen test kits, while highly sensitive for Covid-19 (up to 98 percent), perform poorly for influenza detection, with sensitivity ranging from just 40 to 70 percent. This limitation can lead to “false negative” results, particularly when viral loads are low. Medical professionals recommend retesting over several days and seeking direct medical attention if symptoms persist.

The broader message from health experts like Hui is clear: vaccination remains a critical public health strategy, particularly for vulnerable populations. For parents and individuals, this means taking proactive steps to protect themselves and their families. Timely vaccination, understanding testing limitations, and maintaining vigilant health monitoring are key to navigating the potential winter health challenges.

As Hong Kong braces for a season with dual threats from influenza and emerging Covid-19 variants, individual actions can collectively make a significant difference in community health outcomes. Staying informed, getting vaccinated, and practicing preventive health measures will be essential in mitigating risks and supporting overall public well-being.